SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
8-8 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
8-8 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 3.48 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 1.08 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.48
ERA
Ldr 1.08
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
50%
REDS
50%
MARINERS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
15.9%
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
11.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.71
SEATTLE
Cincinnati
3.85
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
CIN @ SEA
5 - 3
Jul 21, 2026
CIN @ SEA
4 - 2
Jul 20, 2026
CIN @ SEA
0 - 8
Apr 17, 2025
SEA @ CIN
11 - 7
Apr 16, 2025
SEA @ CIN
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.693
OPS
▲
.699
182
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+61.4% more
Seattle: 1.3
vs
Cincinnati: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+34.8% more
Seattle: 12.8
vs
Cincinnati: 8.3
Hits (L5)
+26.0% more
Seattle: 7.3
vs
Cincinnati: 5.4
Walks (L5)
+17.5% more
Seattle: 2.5
vs
Cincinnati: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.7
4
CIN Score
3.9
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.4 / 7.3
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.9
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.3 / 12.8
14.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.5
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SEA
CIN
SEA
ML
55%
88-71
50%
81-81
49%
79-81
52%
85-77
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
98-64
50%
80-80
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-5
56%
85-67-10
54%
83-72-5
53%
81-71-10
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