WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
6-10 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
6-11 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 3.91 | -- | 7.0 | 6 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.30 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.91 Ldr
ERA
4.30
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
52%
PIRATES
48%
NATIONALS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
78%
Under 0
22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.8%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.46
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
4.73
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
PIT @ WSH
11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026
PIT @ WSH
7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026
PIT @ WSH
5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026
WSH @ PIT
8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026
WSH @ PIT
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.744
▲
OPS
.734
210
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+133.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.7
vs
Washington: 0.4
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.7%
Pittsburgh: 25.3%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
Walks (L5)
+52.9% more
Washington: 4.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.5
3
PIT Score
4.7
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.7 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.7
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 7.1
4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 10.0
4.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.8
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WSH
PIT
WSH
ML
52%
82-77
57%
92-69
52%
85-78
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-68
50%
81-82
57%
91-70
TTL
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-78-6
50%
79-78-6
42%
65-90-6
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