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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

8-9  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Apr 15 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

9-7  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Max Fried
STARTING PITCHER

Max Fried

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Steven Cruz None-None 0.00 -- 0.2 1
Max Fried None-None 1.88 -- 6.2 7
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 1.88
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
41%
📊
YANKEES
59%
ROYALS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (New York)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

35.1%

Yankees Cover

64.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

KC By 1-2 runs

14.9%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.1%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.58
KANSAS CITY
5.11
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
6
KANSAS CITY
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Royals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 27, 2026 NYY @ KC 7 - 0
May 26, 2026 NYY @ KC 15 - 1
May 25, 2026 NYY @ KC 4 - 3
Apr 19, 2026 KC @ NYY 0 - 7
Apr 18, 2026 KC @ NYY 4 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.718
OPS
▲ 1.041
170 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +120.2% more
New York: 5.0 vs Kansas City: 2.3
Home Runs (L5) +112.0% more
New York: 1.9 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +111.3% more
New York: 9.0 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Total Bases (L5) +85.2% more
New York: 15.2 vs Kansas City: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.6 2
NYY Score 5.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 5.2 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 8.5 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 8.2 7.0 / 10.0
Walks 5.0 / 2.3 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
KC
NYY
KC
ML
47% 76-85
55% 89-72
52% 85-77
56% 90-70
ATS
59% 95-66
57% 91-70
53% 86-76
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 81-73-7
58% 90-64-7
53% 82-72-7
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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