Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Twins NYM @ MIN

NEW YORK

METSNYM

11-5  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Apr 15 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

5-12  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
@
Bailey Ober
STARTING PITCHER

Bailey Ober

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
Bailey Ober None-None 6.16 -- 6.1 5
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 6.16
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
METS
84%
📊
TWINS
16%
METS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 79%
Under 0 21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

71.1%

Twins Cover

28.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

18.8%

MIN By 1-2 runs

12.9%

MIN By 3-4 runs

7.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.92
NEW YORK
2.69
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 23, 2026 MIN @ NYM 8 - 10
Apr 22, 2026 MIN @ NYM 2 - 3
Apr 21, 2026 MIN @ NYM 5 - 3
Apr 16, 2025 NYM @ MIN 3 - 4
Apr 15, 2025 NYM @ MIN 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.705
OPS
▲ .720
204 ▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +26.7% more
New York: 13.7 vs Minnesota: 10.1
Hits (L5) +23.4% more
New York: 7.9 vs Minnesota: 6.1
Walks (L5) +17.8% more
New York: 2.9 vs Minnesota: 2.4
Home Runs (Season) +8.3% more
New York: 204.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.9 3
MIN Score 2.7 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.1 / 7.9 13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 9.6 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 13.7 18.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NYM
MIN
NYM
ML
52% 84-78
50% 79-80
50% 80-81
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 95-67
58% 93-66
59% 95-66
49% 78-81
TTL
51% 78-75-9
55% 80-66-13
53% 80-72-9
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 3 hours, 46 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 3 hours, 54 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 3 hours, 57 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 4 hours, 4 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 9 hours, 42 minutes ago