Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Twins NYM @ MIN

NEW YORK

METSNYM

11-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Apr 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

6-12  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
@
A.J. Minter
STARTING PITCHER

A.J. Minter

#33 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
A.J. Minter None-None 2.45 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.45
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
79%
📊
TWINS
21%
METS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

62.2%

Twins Cover

37.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.9%

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.36
NEW YORK
3.12
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
79% Win Prob
B
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
B
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 23, 2026 MIN @ NYM 8 - 10
Apr 22, 2026 MIN @ NYM 2 - 3
Apr 21, 2026 MIN @ NYM 5 - 3
Apr 16, 2025 NYM @ MIN 3 - 4
Apr 15, 2025 NYM @ MIN 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.705
OPS
▲ .720
204 ▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +30.8% more
New York: 1.2 vs Minnesota: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +10.2% more
New York: 14.1 vs Minnesota: 12.7
Home Runs (Season) +8.3% more
New York: 204.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Errors (L5) +54.0% more
Minnesota: 1.2 vs New York: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.4 3
MIN Score 3.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.6 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.1 11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 14.1 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 1.9 / 2.0 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NYM
MIN
NYM
ML
52% 84-78
50% 79-80
50% 80-81
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 95-67
58% 93-66
59% 95-66
49% 78-81
TTL
51% 78-75-9
55% 80-66-13
53% 80-72-9
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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