SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
8-9 | Road
5
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
9-8 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Trevino
#35 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jose Trevino | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
44%
REDS
56%
MARINERS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.0%
SEA By 3-4 runs
12.8%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.8%
CIN By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.16
SEATTLE
Cincinnati
4.41
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
CIN @ SEA
5 - 3
Jul 21, 2026
CIN @ SEA
4 - 2
Jul 20, 2026
CIN @ SEA
0 - 8
Apr 17, 2025
SEA @ CIN
11 - 7
Apr 16, 2025
SEA @ CIN
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.693
OPS
▲
.699
182
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.7% more
Cincinnati: 9.5
vs
Seattle: 7.9
Home Runs (Season)
+17.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Seattle: 182.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Cincinnati: 39.4%
vs
Seattle: 37.9%
OPS (Season)
+0.6%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.2
5
CIN Score
4.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 6.9
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 7.9
8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.2 / 12.5
12.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.0
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SEA
CIN
SEA
ML
55%
88-71
50%
81-81
49%
79-81
52%
85-77
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
98-64
50%
80-80
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-5
56%
85-67-10
54%
83-72-5
53%
81-71-10
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