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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

7-11  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, Apr 17 • 12:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

7-12  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Nasim Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Nasim Nunez

#26 | Second Base
@
Jared Triolo
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Triolo

#19 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nasim Nunez None-None -- -- -- --
Jared Triolo None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
52%
📊
PIRATES
48%
NATIONALS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Pittsburgh)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

36.2%

Pirates Cover

63.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.2%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.4%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.06
WASHINGTON
4.47
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 PIT @ WSH 11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PIT @ WSH 7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026 PIT @ WSH 5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026 WSH @ PIT 8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026 WSH @ PIT 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.744 ▲
OPS
.734
210 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +59.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0 vs Washington: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +41.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8 vs Washington: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +29.5% more
Pittsburgh: 10.5 vs Washington: 8.1
Hits (L5) +10.5% more
Pittsburgh: 6.8 vs Washington: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.1 0
PIT Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 6.2 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.3 / 7.4 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 8.1 8.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.0 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WSH
PIT
WSH
ML
52% 82-77
57% 92-69
52% 85-78
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-68
50% 81-82
57% 91-70
TTL
47% 72-81-6
50% 77-78-6
50% 79-78-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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