SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
9-9 | Road
11
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
9-9 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.89 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.89
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
50%
REDS
50%
MARINERS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
14.1%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.46
SEATTLE
Cincinnati
4.28
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
CIN @ SEA
5 - 3
Jul 21, 2026
CIN @ SEA
4 - 2
Jul 20, 2026
CIN @ SEA
0 - 8
Apr 17, 2025
SEA @ CIN
11 - 7
Apr 16, 2025
SEA @ CIN
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.693
OPS
▲
.699
182
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+73.8% more
Seattle: 1.7
vs
Cincinnati: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+26.4% more
Seattle: 14.7
vs
Cincinnati: 10.8
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Seattle: 31.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.4%
Seattle: 23.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.5
11
CIN Score
4.3
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 7.9
10.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.7
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.3
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 14.7
17.0 / 26.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.3
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SEA
CIN
SEA
ML
55%
88-71
50%
81-81
49%
79-81
52%
85-77
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
98-64
50%
80-80
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-5
56%
85-67-10
54%
83-72-5
53%
81-71-10
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …