NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
11-7 | Road
6
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
8-10 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Walls
#6 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Taylor Walls | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.70
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
66%
RAYS
34%
YANKEES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
13.5%
TB By 1-2 runs
18.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
13.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.47
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
5.49
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
34% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041
▲
OPS
.728
2
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.3% more
Tampa Bay: 9.9
vs
New York: 8.7
Hits (L5)
+12.9% more
Tampa Bay: 8.4
vs
New York: 7.4
Home Runs (L5)
+12.1% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3
vs
New York: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.5
6
TB Score
5.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.4
12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 8.7
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 13.0
16.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.7
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYY
TB
NYY
ML
58%
95-68
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
95-66
55%
90-73
53%
86-76
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-10
53%
82-72-7
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …