Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Mets STL @ NYM

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

9-9  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Apr 17 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

11-7  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
39%
📊
METS
61%
CARDINALS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (New York)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

35.0%

Mets Cover

65.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

STL By 1-2 runs

14.9%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.1%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.79
ST. LOUIS
5.33
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 11, 2026 STL @ NYM 4 - 5
Jun 10, 2026 STL @ NYM 9 - 2
Jun 9, 2026 STL @ NYM 7 - 0
Apr 1, 2026 NYM @ STL 1 - 2
Mar 31, 2026 NYM @ STL 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.691
OPS
▲ .705
167
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +33.0% more
New York: 0.4 vs St. Louis: 0.1
Walks (L5) +24.6% more
New York: 2.6 vs St. Louis: 2.1
Home Runs (Season) +22.2% more
New York: 204.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Strikeouts (L5) +21.8% more
New York: 9.4 vs St. Louis: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.8 1
NYM Score 5.3 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 8.8 8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 7.7 11.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 13.8 / 13.5 13.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.1 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
STL
NYM
STL
ML
50% 79-80
53% 85-74
48% 76-83
52% 84-77
ATS
58% 93-66
56% 89-70
49% 78-81
53% 85-76
TTL
55% 80-66-13
46% 68-81-10
51% 74-72-13
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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