Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Rangers LAA @ TEX

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

9-8  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Apr 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

11-7  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Johnson

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kumar Rocker
STARTING PITCHER

Kumar Rocker

#80 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Johnson None-None 7.04 -- 1.1 1
Kumar Rocker None-None 6.38 -- 7.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
7.04 ERA Ldr 6.38
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
42%
📊
RANGERS
58%
ANGELS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Texas)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

23.7%

Rangers Cover

76.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

LAA By 1-2 runs

11.0%

LAA By 3-4 runs

5.7%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.82
LOS ANGELES
5.68
TEXAS
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
4
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim Angels (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 LAA @ TEX 3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026 LAA @ TEX 3 - 0
Aug 21, 2026 LAA @ TEX 1 - 2
Aug 13, 2026 TEX @ LAA 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 TEX @ LAA 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.679
OPS
▲ .713
154
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +40.1% more
Texas: 8.5 vs Los Angeles: 6.1
Hits (L5) +21.1% more
Texas: 8.6 vs Los Angeles: 7.1
Home Runs (Season) +18.8% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
OPS (Season) +3.4%
Texas: 71.3% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 2.8 3
TEX Score 5.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.1 11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 6.1 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 11.7 18.0 / 6.0
Walks 1.8 / 3.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
LAA
TEX
LAA
ML
53% 86-76
59% 96-66
57% 91-70
55% 89-73
ATS
57% 92-70
60% 97-65
61% 98-63
51% 82-80
TTL
53% 78-70-14
53% 83-74-5
55% 81-66-14
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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