CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
9-9 | Road
10
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
8-12 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Herrin
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Herrin | None-None | 2.57 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 7.41 | -- | 4.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.57 Ldr
ERA
7.41
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
60%
PIRATES
40%
GUARDIANS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
83%
Under 0
17%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.2%
CLE By 3-4 runs
15.1%
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.88
CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh
3.35
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
PIT @ CLE
7 - 1
Jul 18, 2026
PIT @ CLE
3 - 5
Apr 20, 2025
CLE @ PIT
5 - 4
Apr 19, 2025
CLE @ PIT
3 - 0
Apr 18, 2025
CLE @ PIT
10 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.696
OPS
▲
.734
162
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+38.7% more
Cleveland: 3.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.6% more
Cleveland: 8.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.2
Home Runs (L5)
+30.2% more
Cleveland: 1.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+22.5% more
Cleveland: 12.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.9
10
PIT Score
3.4
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 7.9
11.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.2 / 8.3
6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 12.5
22.0 / 23.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.6
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CLE
PIT
CLE
ML
52%
82-77
54%
87-75
52%
85-78
49%
80-83
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
93-69
50%
81-82
58%
95-68
TTL
47%
72-81-6
56%
89-71-2
50%
79-78-6
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
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