Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Phillies MIA @ PHI

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

8-10  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Apr 18 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

11-8  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
Zack Wheeler
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Wheeler

#45 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Phillips None-None 3.60 -- 1.0 1
Zack Wheeler None-None 3.73 -- 7.0 13
None-None W-L None-None
3.60 Ldr ERA 3.73
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 13
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
37%
📊
PHILLIES
63%
MARLINS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Philadelphia)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

41.8%

Phillies Cover

58.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.7%

MIA By 3-4 runs

11.1%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.5%

PHI By 3-4 runs

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.71
MIAMI
4.54
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 MIA @ PHI 1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 MIA @ PHI 4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026 MIA @ PHI 5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026 PHI @ MIA 6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026 PHI @ MIA 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.727 ▲
OPS
.724
168 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +77.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.1 vs Miami: 0.3
Home Runs (L5) +22.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7 vs Miami: 0.5
Slugging Pct (Season) +3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Miami: 40.0%
Home Runs (Season) +98.2% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.7 2
PHI Score 4.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 10.4 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 10.4 16.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 14.4 16.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.3 / 5.9 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59% 97-67
48% 78-84
49% 80-84
55% 88-72
ATS
65% 107-57
56% 91-71
51% 83-81
54% 86-74
TTL
57% 88-67-9
56% 88-69-5
51% 78-76-9
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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