CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
4-14 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
10-10 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Edgar Quero
#26 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ceddanne Rafaela
#3 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgar Quero | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
22%
RED SOX
78%
WHITE SOX
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
15.5%
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.92
CHICAGO
Boston
3.23
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Loss
22% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
CHW @ BOS
11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026
CHW @ BOS
0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
CHW @ BOS
2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026
BOS @ CHW
2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026
BOS @ CHW
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.826
▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+83.3% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+43.0% more
Chicago: 0.9
vs
Boston: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+41.7%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+25.6%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.9
3
BOS Score
3.2
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 5.5
11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.5
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 6.3
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 7.9
27.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.6
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHW
BOS
CHW
ML
50%
80-80
48%
81-87
47%
76-87
56%
94-74
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
99-69
48%
79-84
55%
93-75
TTL
46%
72-83-5
58%
97-69-2
47%
74-83-6
51%
85-81-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox