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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

7-12  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Apr 18 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

5-13  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Luke Keaschall
STARTING PITCHER

Luke Keaschall

#15 | Second Base
@
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luke Keaschall None-None -- -- -- --
Raisel Iglesias None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.86
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
60%
📊
BRAVES
40%
TWINS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Atlanta)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

39.2%

Braves Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.1%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.3%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.06
MINNESOTA
4.16
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 ATL @ MIN 4 - 6
Aug 18, 2026 ATL @ MIN 1 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 ATL @ MIN 2 - 4
Apr 20, 2025 MIN @ ATL 2 - 6
Apr 19, 2025 MIN @ ATL 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.720
OPS
▲ .757
187 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +133.0% more
Atlanta: 1.9 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Walks (L5) +53.7% more
Atlanta: 3.5 vs Minnesota: 2.3
Runs per Game (Season) +9.6% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Total Bases (L5) +8.4% more
Atlanta: 13.2 vs Minnesota: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.1 4
ATL Score 4.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 8.6 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 9.6 4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 12.1 11.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.3 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIN
ATL
MIN
ML
46% 77-90
52% 84-78
54% 90-78
50% 80-81
ATS
57% 96-71
59% 95-67
52% 87-81
59% 95-66
TTL
53% 83-73-11
51% 78-75-9
49% 76-80-11
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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