Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Rangers LAD @ TEX

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

14-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Apr 18 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

12-7  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
STARTING PITCHER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob deGrom
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob deGrom

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yoshinobu Yamamoto None-None 0.93 -- 7.0 10
Jacob deGrom None-None 3.32 -- 7.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
0.93 Ldr ERA 3.32
-- WHIP --
7.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 7.0
10 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
58%
📊
RANGERS
42%
DODGERS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

53.7%

Rangers Cover

46.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.0%

LAD By 3-4 runs

14.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.44
LOS ANGELES
4.07
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 TEX @ LAD 5 - 2
Apr 11, 2026 TEX @ LAD 3 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 TEX @ LAD 7 - 8
Apr 20, 2025 LAD @ TEX 1 - 0
Apr 19, 2025 LAD @ TEX 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.762 ▲
OPS
.713
204 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +56.5% more
Los Angeles: 2.7 vs Texas: 1.2
Home Runs (L5) +31.7% more
Los Angeles: 1.4 vs Texas: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +19.1% more
Los Angeles: 11.5 vs Texas: 9.3
Runs per Game (Season) +16.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Texas: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.4 3
TEX Score 4.1 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 9.1 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 11.5 8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 14.9 10.0 / 8.0
Walks 1.2 / 2.7 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
LAD
TEX
LAD
ML
53% 86-76
56% 92-73
57% 91-70
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 92-70
59% 98-67
61% 98-63
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 78-70-14
48% 77-82-6
55% 81-66-14
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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