MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
8-11 | Road
10
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
12-8 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Graham Pauley
#21 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Pauley | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 2.79 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.79
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
33%
PHILLIES
67%
MARLINS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.2%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.4%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.37
MIAMI
Philadelphia
4.43
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.727
▲
OPS
.724
168
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+51.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7
vs
Miami: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+48.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.1
vs
Miami: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.6% more
Philadelphia: 12.4
vs
Miami: 8.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.4
10
PHI Score
4.4
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.6
18.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
12.4 / 8.9
2.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 12.3
25.0 / 25.0
Walks
2.9 / 5.3
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59%
97-67
48%
78-84
49%
80-84
55%
88-72
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-71
51%
83-81
54%
86-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-73-5
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