ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
9-11 | Road
0
NEW YORK
METSNYM
13-7 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Liberatore
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | None-None | 3.60 | -- | 6.2 | 6 |
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 0.79 | -- | 5.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.60
ERA
Ldr 0.79
--
WHIP
--
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.2
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
31%
METS
69%
CARDINALS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
88%
Under 0
12%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
STL By 1-2 runs
11.9%
STL By 3-4 runs
6.4%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.1%
NYM By 3-4 runs
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.11
ST. LOUIS
New York
5.68
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.6
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 11, 2026
STL @ NYM
4 - 5
Jun 10, 2026
STL @ NYM
9 - 2
Jun 9, 2026
STL @ NYM
7 - 0
Apr 1, 2026
NYM @ STL
1 - 2
Mar 31, 2026
NYM @ STL
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.691
OPS
▲
.705
167
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+156.3% more
New York: 11.6
vs
St. Louis: 4.5
Home Runs (L5)
+58.0% more
New York: 1.2
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+50.2% more
New York: 16.0
vs
St. Louis: 10.7
Home Runs (Season)
+22.2% more
New York: 204.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.1
0
NYM Score
5.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 7.3
8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.6 / 4.5
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 10.7
13.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.5
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
STL
NYM
STL
ML
50%
79-80
53%
85-74
48%
76-83
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
89-70
49%
78-81
53%
85-76
TTL
55%
80-66-13
46%
68-81-10
51%
74-72-13
50%
76-75-10
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