CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
10-9 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
8-13 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Gaddis
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Gaddis | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Paul Skenes | None-None | 2.87 | -- | 7.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.87
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
64%
PIRATES
36%
GUARDIANS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.0%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.9%
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.65
CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh
3.88
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
PIT @ CLE
7 - 1
Jul 18, 2026
PIT @ CLE
3 - 5
Apr 20, 2025
CLE @ PIT
5 - 4
Apr 19, 2025
CLE @ PIT
3 - 0
Apr 18, 2025
CLE @ PIT
10 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.696
OPS
▲
.734
162
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+63.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8
vs
Cleveland: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+34.7% more
Pittsburgh: 1.6
vs
Cleveland: 1.2
Home Runs (Season)
+14.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.9% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.7
3
PIT Score
3.9
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 9.9
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 9.9
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 16.0
10.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CLE
PIT
CLE
ML
52%
82-77
54%
87-74
52%
85-78
49%
80-82
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-68
50%
81-82
59%
95-67
TTL
47%
72-81-6
55%
88-71-2
50%
79-78-6
43%
69-90-2
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