Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Rangers LAD @ TEX

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

15-6  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Apr 19 • 4:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

12-8  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nathan Eovaldi
STARTING PITCHER

Nathan Eovaldi

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Vesia None-None 2.38 -- 0.1 1
Nathan Eovaldi None-None 2.64 -- 6.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
2.38 Ldr ERA 2.64
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
63%
📊
RANGERS
38%
DODGERS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

61.3%

Rangers Cover

38.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.7%

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.9%

TEX By 3-4 runs

10.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.61
LOS ANGELES
3.46
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 TEX @ LAD 5 - 2
Apr 11, 2026 TEX @ LAD 3 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 TEX @ LAD 7 - 8
Apr 20, 2025 LAD @ TEX 1 - 0
Apr 19, 2025 LAD @ TEX 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.762 ▲
OPS
.713
204 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +49.2% more
Los Angeles: 1.3 vs Texas: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +24.0% more
Los Angeles: 11.7 vs Texas: 8.9
Runs per Game (Season) +16.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Texas: 4.2
Home Runs (Season) +10.3% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Texas: 183.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.6 3
TEX Score 3.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.7 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 11.7 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 12.6 12.0 / 11.0
Walks 1.8 / 1.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
LAD
TEX
LAD
ML
53% 86-76
56% 92-73
57% 91-70
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 92-70
59% 98-67
61% 98-63
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 78-70-14
48% 77-82-6
55% 81-66-14
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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