MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
7-13 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
6-13 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Larnach
#9 | Left Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.38
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
54%
BRAVES
46%
TWINS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.9%
MIN By 3-4 runs
11.3%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
ATL By 3-4 runs
15.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.42
MINNESOTA
Atlanta
4.18
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim
Twins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
ATL @ MIN
4 - 6
Aug 18, 2026
ATL @ MIN
1 - 4
Aug 17, 2026
ATL @ MIN
2 - 4
Apr 20, 2025
MIN @ ATL
2 - 6
Apr 19, 2025
MIN @ ATL
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.720
OPS
▲
.757
187
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+89.0% more
Atlanta: 1.6
vs
Minnesota: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+16.8% more
Atlanta: 3.3
vs
Minnesota: 2.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.6% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+3.7%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.4
3
ATL Score
4.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 7.7
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 9.4
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 12.1
18.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.9
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIN
ATL
MIN
ML
46%
77-90
52%
84-78
54%
90-78
50%
80-81
ATS
57%
96-71
59%
95-67
52%
87-81
59%
95-66
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-75-9
49%
76-80-11
53%
80-72-9
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