MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
8-12 | Road
7
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
13-8 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 2.53 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.91
ERA
Ldr 2.53
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
29%
PHILLIES
71%
MARLINS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.4%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.8
MIAMI
Philadelphia
4.52
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
71% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.727
▲
OPS
.724
168
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8
vs
Miami: 0.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.2% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+39.7% more
Miami: 4.8
vs
Philadelphia: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.8
7
PHI Score
4.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.1 / 10.7
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.3
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 16.5
12.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.9 / 4.8
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59%
97-67
48%
78-84
49%
80-84
55%
88-72
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-71
51%
83-81
54%
86-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-73-5
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