CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
11-9 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
8-14 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | None-None | 1.59 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.18 | -- | 5.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.59 Ldr
ERA
4.18
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
68%
PIRATES
32%
GUARDIANS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CLE By 3-4 runs
14.8%
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.93
CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh
3.49
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
PIT @ CLE
7 - 1
Jul 18, 2026
PIT @ CLE
3 - 5
Apr 20, 2025
CLE @ PIT
5 - 4
Apr 19, 2025
CLE @ PIT
3 - 0
Apr 18, 2025
CLE @ PIT
10 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.696
OPS
▲
.734
162
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.3% more
Cleveland: 8.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.3
Hits (L5)
+24.9% more
Cleveland: 9.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.2
Total Bases (L5)
+18.3% more
Cleveland: 15.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.5
Walks (L5)
+15.3% more
Cleveland: 3.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.9
5
PIT Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 9.6
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 8.9
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 15.3
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.4
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CLE
PIT
CLE
ML
52%
82-77
54%
87-74
52%
85-78
49%
80-82
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-68
50%
81-82
59%
95-67
TTL
47%
72-81-6
55%
88-71-2
50%
79-78-6
43%
69-90-2
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