SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
11-10 | Road
8
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
12-9 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 2.57 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.57
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
45%
BLUE JAYS
55%
MARINERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
13.7%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
13.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.48
SEATTLE
Toronto
4.44
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SEA @ TOR
0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026
SEA @ TOR
3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026
SEA @ TOR
1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.693
▲
OPS
.692
182
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+72.7% more
Seattle: 1.8
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+24.1% more
Seattle: 16.2
vs
Toronto: 12.3
Home Runs (Season)
+16.5% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.4% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.5
8
TOR Score
4.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.9
11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.8
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 8.7
18.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 16.2
15.0 / 22.0
Walks
4.3 / 3.7
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SEA
TOR
SEA
ML
46%
74-87
50%
81-81
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
98-64
49%
79-81
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
80-76-5
56%
85-67-10
45%
70-85-5
53%
81-71-10
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