Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Mets STL @ NYM

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

9-12  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Apr 20 • 1:40 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

14-7  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Ryne Stanek
STARTING PITCHER

Ryne Stanek

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryne Stanek None-None 1.08 -- 1.0 1
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.08 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
27%
📊
METS
73%
CARDINALS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 33%
Under 0 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

22.6%

Mets Cover

77.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

STL By 1-2 runs

10.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

5.4%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.73
ST. LOUIS
5.74
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 11, 2026 STL @ NYM 4 - 5
Jun 10, 2026 STL @ NYM 9 - 2
Jun 9, 2026 STL @ NYM 7 - 0
Apr 1, 2026 NYM @ STL 1 - 2
Mar 31, 2026 NYM @ STL 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.691
OPS
▲ .705
167
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +82.1% more
New York: 9.7 vs St. Louis: 5.4
Home Runs (L5) +72.0% more
New York: 1.2 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +71.2% more
New York: 15.0 vs St. Louis: 8.8
Walks (L5) +52.0% more
New York: 3.0 vs St. Louis: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 2.7 4
NYM Score 5.7 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.3 / 5.8 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 5.4 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 8.8 17.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.0 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
STL
NYM
STL
ML
50% 79-80
53% 85-74
48% 76-83
52% 84-77
ATS
58% 93-66
56% 89-70
49% 78-81
53% 85-76
TTL
55% 80-66-13
46% 68-81-10
51% 74-72-13
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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