WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
9-12 | Road
1
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
3-17 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jimmy Herget
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 3.68 | -- | 6.1 | 9 |
| Jimmy Herget | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.68
ERA
Ldr 1.93
--
WHIP
--
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
81%
ROCKIES
19%
NATIONALS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.5%
COL By 1-2 runs
16.2%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.94
WASHINGTON
Colorado
2.88
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rockies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
COL @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 26, 2026
COL @ WSH
13 - 1
Aug 25, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 1
Aug 24, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 13
Jul 22, 2026
WSH @ COL
8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.744
▲
OPS
.739
210
▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+38.8% more
Washington: 1.5
vs
Colorado: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.8% more
Washington: 11.0
vs
Colorado: 7.8
Home Runs (Season)
+14.3% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.5% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.9
1
COL Score
2.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.9
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.5
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 11.0
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 13.3
10.0 / 6.0
Walks
5.1 / 4.2
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
WSH
COL
WSH
ML
60%
97-64
57%
92-69
55%
88-73
54%
87-74
ATS
60%
97-64
58%
93-68
52%
83-78
57%
91-70
TTL
60%
93-62-6
50%
77-78-6
50%
77-78-6
42%
65-90-6
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