NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
14-8 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
12-9 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Yarbrough
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Yarbrough | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 1.50
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
57%
GUARDIANS
43%
YANKEES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.5%
NYY By 3-4 runs
15.9%
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
11.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.81
NEW YORK
Cleveland
4.95
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 10, 2026
NYY @ CLE
8 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
NYY @ CLE
3 - 2
Jun 8, 2026
NYY @ CLE
7 - 5
Jun 4, 2026
CLE @ NYY
1 - 2
Jun 3, 2026
CLE @ NYY
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Cleveland
CLE
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
1.041
▲
OPS
.696
2
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+53.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Errors (L5)
+52.0% more
New York: 0.9
vs
Cleveland: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+34.5%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Walks (L5)
+21.8% more
New York: 4.2
vs
Cleveland: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.8
4
CLE Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 8.5
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.6
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 6.5
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 14.3
18.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.3 / 4.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
NYY
CLE
NYY
ML
54%
87-75
47%
76-85
49%
80-83
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
93-69
59%
95-66
58%
95-68
53%
86-76
TTL
56%
89-71-2
53%
81-73-7
44%
70-90-2
53%
82-72-7
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
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