ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
9-13 | Road
6
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
8-13 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.93 Ldr
ERA
6.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
53%
BRAVES
47%
CARDINALS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.8%
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.34
ST. LOUIS
Atlanta
3.9
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
ATL @ STL
4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026
ATL @ STL
1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026
ATL @ STL
1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026
STL @ ATL
11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026
STL @ ATL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.691
OPS
▲
.757
167
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
St. Louis: 23.9%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Home Runs (L5)
+164.0% more
Atlanta: 1.9
vs
St. Louis: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+69.2% more
Atlanta: 15.5
vs
St. Louis: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.3
6
ATL Score
3.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 6.6
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.3
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 6.9
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 9.2
14.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.3
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
STL
ATL
STL
ML
46%
77-90
53%
85-74
54%
90-78
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
89-70
52%
87-81
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
83-73-11
46%
68-81-10
49%
76-80-11
50%
76-75-10
Contextual Game News
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Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3