Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Cubs LAD @ CHC

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

16-7  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, Apr 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

14-10  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gavin Hollowell
STARTING PITCHER

Gavin Hollowell

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tanner Scott None-None 2.77 -- 1.0 1
Gavin Hollowell None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.77 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
62%
📊
CUBS
38%
DODGERS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Chicago)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.8%

Cubs Cover

59.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.5%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.01
LOS ANGELES
5.94
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 5, 2026 LAD @ CHC 6 - 7
Aug 4, 2026 LAD @ CHC 1 - 5
Aug 3, 2026 LAD @ CHC 5 - 10
Apr 26, 2026 CHC @ LAD 0 - 6
Apr 25, 2026 CHC @ LAD 4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.762 ▲
OPS
.374
204 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +116.0% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +73.0% more
Chicago: 1.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +63.4% more
Chicago: 15.3 vs Los Angeles: 9.4
Walks (L5) +48.6% more
Chicago: 3.7 vs Los Angeles: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.0 10
CHC Score 5.9 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 5.8 17.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.8 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 10.4 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 9.4 32.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.5 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
LAD
CHC
LAD
ML
58% 93-68
56% 92-73
51% 82-79
48% 79-87
ATS
61% 97-63-1
59% 98-67
47% 75-85-1
43% 72-94
TTL
52% 81-74-6
48% 77-82-6
46% 72-83-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 51 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 58 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 58 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 47 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 54 minutes ago