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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

8-15  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, Apr 22 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

11-10  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jared Triolo
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Triolo

#19 | Shortstop
@
Nolan Schanuel
STARTING PITCHER

Nolan Schanuel

#18 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jared Triolo None-None -- -- -- --
Nolan Schanuel None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
33%
📊
ANGELS
67%
PIRATES --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

38.8%

Angels Cover

61.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.9%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.24
PITTSBURGH
4.38
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 LAA @ PIT 0 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 LAA @ PIT 6 - 1
Sep 4, 2026 LAA @ PIT 0 - 1
Apr 24, 2025 PIT @ LAA 3 - 4
Apr 23, 2025 PIT @ LAA 3 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.734 ▲
OPS
.679
186 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +74.5% more
Los Angeles: 4.5 vs Pittsburgh: 2.6
Home Runs (L5) +31.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Pittsburgh: 0.7
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.6 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
Hits (L5) +29.6% more
Pittsburgh: 8.5 vs Los Angeles: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.2 9
LAA Score 4.4 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.0 / 8.5 5.0 / 18.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 6.2 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 13.0 10.0 / 23.0
Walks 4.5 / 2.6 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
PIT
LAA
PIT
ML
59% 96-66
52% 82-77
55% 89-73
52% 85-78
ATS
60% 97-65
54% 86-73
51% 82-80
50% 81-82
TTL
53% 83-74-5
47% 72-81-6
52% 82-75-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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