TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
9-13 | Road
1
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
13-9 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Englert | None-None | 3.21 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.21
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
32%
DIAMONDBACKS
68%
RAYS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.2%
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.6
TAMPA BAY
Arizona
4.23
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
32% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
ARI @ TB
2 - 4
Jun 26, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 24, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 4
Apr 23, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.720
169
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+23.4% more
Tampa Bay: 3.4
vs
Arizona: 2.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.2%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Arizona: 24.6%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.8%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Arizona: 31.8%
OPS (Season)
+0.8%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.6
1
ARI Score
4.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.2
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 9.9
6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 9.4
15.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.4
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
TB
ARI
TB
ML
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
54%
86-74
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
91-70
60%
97-66
56%
89-71
55%
90-73
TTL
52%
80-73-8
47%
73-81-9
49%
73-77-9
51%
78-75-10
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