CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
11-13 | Road
5
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
11-12 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.38 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Sandy Alcantara | None-None | 6.56 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.38 Ldr
ERA
6.56
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
48%
MARLINS
52%
REDS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
78%
Under 0
22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
17.0%
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5.59
CINCINNATI
Miami
4.32
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIA @ CIN
7 - 1
Aug 15, 2026
MIA @ CIN
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
MIA @ CIN
0 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
CIN @ MIA
1 - 8
Apr 8, 2026
CIN @ MIA
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.699
OPS
▲
.727
213
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+61.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.7
vs
Miami: 0.0
Home Runs (L5)
+39.5% more
Cincinnati: 1.5
vs
Miami: 0.9
Walks (L5)
+22.3% more
Cincinnati: 4.0
vs
Miami: 3.1
Home Runs (Season)
+21.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.6
5
MIA Score
4.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.3 / 10.9
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 6.9
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 18.0
11.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.0
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CIN
MIA
CIN
ML
48%
78-84
55%
88-71
55%
88-72
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
91-71
54%
86-73
54%
86-74
50%
80-80
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
81-73-5
53%
82-73-5
54%
83-72-5
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