Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Cubs LAD @ CHC

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

16-8  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Apr 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

15-10  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Evan Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Evan Phillips

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Evan Phillips None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Matthew Boyd None-None 2.54 -- 6.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.54
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
57%
📊
CUBS
43%
DODGERS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Chicago)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

36.5%

Cubs Cover

63.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

LAD By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

9.5%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.96
LOS ANGELES
6.34
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 5, 2026 LAD @ CHC 6 - 7
Aug 4, 2026 LAD @ CHC 1 - 5
Aug 3, 2026 LAD @ CHC 5 - 10
Apr 26, 2026 CHC @ LAD 0 - 6
Apr 25, 2026 CHC @ LAD 4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.762 ▲
OPS
.374
204 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +78.0% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Hits (L5) +56.8% more
Chicago: 11.3 vs Los Angeles: 7.2
Total Bases (L5) +53.7% more
Chicago: 20.9 vs Los Angeles: 13.6
Home Runs (L5) +32.2% more
Chicago: 2.0 vs Los Angeles: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.0 6
CHC Score 6.3 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.3 / 7.2 8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 10.9 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 20.9 / 13.6 12.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.0 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
LAD
CHC
LAD
ML
58% 93-68
56% 92-73
51% 82-79
48% 79-87
ATS
61% 97-63-1
59% 98-67
47% 75-85-1
43% 72-94
TTL
52% 81-74-6
48% 77-82-6
46% 72-83-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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