COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
4-18 | Road
2
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
10-14 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jimmy Herget
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Herget | None-None | 2.38 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 0.96 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.38
ERA
Ldr 0.96
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
24%
ROYALS
76%
ROCKIES
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
COL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
2.15
COLORADO
Kansas City
3.15
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
KC @ COL
1 - 8
Aug 1, 2026
KC @ COL
6 - 12
Jul 31, 2026
KC @ COL
1 - 3
Apr 24, 2025
COL @ KC
2 - 6
Apr 22, 2025
COL @ KC
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.739
▲
OPS
.718
180
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+35.1% more
Kansas City: 8.0
vs
Colorado: 5.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+20.0% more
Kansas City: 7.5
vs
Colorado: 6.2
Total Bases (L5)
+10.5% more
Kansas City: 11.5
vs
Colorado: 10.4
Errors (L5)
+65.0% more
Colorado: 0.9
vs
Kansas City: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
2.2
2
KC Score
3.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 5.9
13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 6.2
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 10.4
18.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.0 / 4.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
COL
KC
COL
ML
55%
89-72
60%
97-64
56%
90-70
55%
88-73
ATS
57%
91-70
60%
97-64
58%
93-67
52%
83-78
TTL
58%
90-64-7
60%
93-62-6
54%
83-70-7
50%
77-78-6
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