Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Angels PIT @ LAA

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

10-15  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Apr 24 • 9:29 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

11-12  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Carmen Mlodzinski
STARTING PITCHER

Carmen Mlodzinski

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ryan Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Johnson

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carmen Mlodzinski None-None 6.95 -- 5.0 4
Ryan Johnson None-None 5.40 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.95 ERA Ldr 5.40
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
42%
📊
ANGELS
58%
PIRATES --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 72%
Under 0 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

52.8%

Angels Cover

47.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.9%

PIT By 3-4 runs

14.4%

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.9%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.23
PITTSBURGH
3.95
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 LAA @ PIT 0 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 LAA @ PIT 6 - 1
Sep 4, 2026 LAA @ PIT 0 - 1
Apr 24, 2025 PIT @ LAA 3 - 4
Apr 23, 2025 PIT @ LAA 3 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.734 ▲
OPS
.679
186 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +61.2% more
Pittsburgh: 11.4 vs Los Angeles: 4.4
Total Bases (L5) +47.4% more
Pittsburgh: 15.6 vs Los Angeles: 8.2
Strikeouts (L5) +26.6% more
Pittsburgh: 9.4 vs Los Angeles: 6.9
Home Runs (L5) +20.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.2 3
LAA Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 4.4 / 11.4 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 9.4 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 8.2 / 15.6 15.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
PIT
LAA
PIT
ML
59% 96-66
52% 82-77
55% 89-73
52% 85-78
ATS
60% 97-65
54% 86-73
51% 82-80
50% 81-82
TTL
53% 83-74-5
47% 72-81-6
52% 82-75-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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