TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
10-14 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
14-10 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Tawa
#13 | First Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | None-None | 2.10 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
| Tim Tawa | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.10
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
5
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
34%
DIAMONDBACKS
66%
RAYS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.4%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.0%
ARI By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.46
TAMPA BAY
Arizona
4.85
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
ARI @ TB
2 - 4
Jun 26, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 24, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 4
Apr 23, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.728
▲
OPS
.720
169
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+114.0% more
Arizona: 1.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.7% more
Arizona: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.8
Total Bases (L5)
+14.5% more
Arizona: 15.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 13.3
Walks (L5)
+42.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Arizona: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.5
7
ARI Score
4.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 8.4
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 6.8
16.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 13.3
10.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.6 / 4.5
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
TB
ARI
TB
ML
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
54%
86-74
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
91-70
60%
97-66
56%
89-71
55%
90-73
TTL
52%
80-73-8
47%
73-81-9
49%
73-77-9
51%
78-75-10
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