Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Yankees TOR @ NYY

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

12-13  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Apr 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

15-10  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Mason Fluharty
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Fluharty

#68 | Relief Pitcher
@
Fernando Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Fernando Cruz

#63 | RP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Fluharty None-None 3.12 -- 0.2 --
Fernando Cruz None-None 1.93 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.12 ERA Ldr 1.93
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
38%
📊
YANKEES
62%
BLUE JAYS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (New York)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

39.3%

Yankees Cover

60.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.1%

TOR By 3-4 runs

10.4%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
TORONTO
4.49
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.692
OPS
▲ 1.041
152 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +125.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Toronto: 4.0
Total Bases (L5) +91.6% more
New York: 14.7 vs Toronto: 7.7
Hits (L5) +71.8% more
New York: 9.0 vs Toronto: 5.2
Errors (L5) +66.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs Toronto: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.4 4
NYY Score 4.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 5.2 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 9.0 2.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 7.7 13.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.4 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47% 76-85
46% 74-87
52% 85-77
50% 80-80
ATS
59% 95-66
56% 90-71
53% 86-76
49% 79-81
TTL
53% 81-73-7
51% 80-76-5
53% 82-72-7
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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