HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
13-11 | Road
0
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
12-14 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bennett Sousa
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Sousa | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 0.87 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
0.87
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
58%
ROYALS
42%
ASTROS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
79%
Under 0
21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
11.0%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.5%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.05
HOUSTON
Kansas City
3.92
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
KC @ HOU
2 - 6
Sep 16, 2026
KC @ HOU
5 - 2
Sep 15, 2026
KC @ HOU
2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026
HOU @ KC
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
HOU @ KC
8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Kansas City
KC
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.582
OPS
▲
.718
4
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4150.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+78.2% more
Kansas City: 3.7
vs
Houston: 2.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+42.0% more
Kansas City: 4.3
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.6%
Kansas City: 71.8%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.1
0
KC Score
3.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 10.3
9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.9
9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 14.8
11.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.1
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
HOU
KC
HOU
ML
55%
89-72
50%
81-82
56%
90-70
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
91-72
58%
93-67
55%
90-74
TTL
58%
90-64-7
45%
70-84-9
54%
83-70-7
45%
69-86-9
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