CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
12-13 | Road
8
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
4-20 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zach Agnos
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.19 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Zach Agnos | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.19
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
82%
ROCKIES
18%
REDS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
19.2%
COL By 1-2 runs
11.9%
COL By 3-4 runs
6.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5.67
CINCINNATI
Colorado
3.11
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
82% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.6
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
CIN @ COL
9 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
CIN @ COL
3 - 10
Jul 17, 2026
CIN @ COL
7 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
COL @ CIN
4 - 6
Apr 29, 2026
COL @ CIN
13 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.699
OPS
▲
.739
213
▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+46.9% more
Cincinnati: 10.0
vs
Colorado: 5.3
Total Bases (L5)
+37.2% more
Cincinnati: 16.3
vs
Colorado: 10.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.2% more
Cincinnati: 7.6
vs
Colorado: 6.2
Home Runs (Season)
+15.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.7
8
COL Score
3.1
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.3 / 10.0
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 7.6
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 16.3
20.0 / 18.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.7
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
CIN
COL
CIN
ML
60%
97-64
55%
88-71
55%
88-73
49%
79-81
ATS
60%
97-64
54%
86-73
52%
83-78
50%
80-80
TTL
60%
93-62-6
53%
81-73-5
50%
77-78-6
54%
83-72-5
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