TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
11-14 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
17-8 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 2.53 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 1.42 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.53
ERA
Ldr 1.42
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
27%
PADRES
73%
RAYS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
TB By 1-2 runs
14.9%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.1%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.75
TAMPA BAY
San Diego
5.28
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
73% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SD @ TB
4 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
SD @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 28, 2026
SD @ TB
4 - 9
Apr 27, 2025
TB @ SD
4 - 2
Apr 26, 2025
TB @ SD
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.728
OPS
▲
.925
169
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+19.7%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.9% more
San Diego: 8.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Tampa Bay: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
1
SD Score
5.3
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.7 / 8.6
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 6.8
17.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
8.5 / 14.2
6.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.0
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
TB
SD
TB
ML
51%
85-83
58%
95-68
51%
85-82
58%
95-68
ATS
54%
91-77
60%
97-66
55%
92-75
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
82-80-6
47%
73-81-9
54%
86-74-6
51%
78-75-10
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