PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
10-16 | Road
3
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
16-9 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Vesia
#51 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | None-None | 2.39 | -- | 6.1 | 9 |
| Alex Vesia | None-None | 3.46 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.39 Ldr
ERA
3.46
--
WHIP
--
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
26%
DODGERS
74%
PIRATES
--
DODGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.1%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.6%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.3%
LAD By 3-4 runs
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.62
PITTSBURGH
Los Angeles
4.28
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Los Angeles
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Loss
74% Win Prob
B
Sim
Dodgers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Dodgers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
PIT @ LAD
0 - 4
Aug 22, 2026
PIT @ LAD
3 - 4
Aug 21, 2026
PIT @ LAD
4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026
LAD @ PIT
8 - 6
Jun 10, 2026
LAD @ PIT
8 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.734
OPS
▲
.762
186
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+208.6% more
Los Angeles: 4.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.4
Home Runs (L5)
+34.4% more
Los Angeles: 1.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.5% more
Los Angeles: 10.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.6
Home Runs (Season)
+9.7% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.6
3
LAD Score
4.3
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.5 / 10.6
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 8.6
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 16.0
9.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.3 / 1.4
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
PIT
LAD
PIT
ML
56%
92-73
52%
82-77
48%
79-87
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
98-67
54%
86-73
43%
72-94
50%
81-82
TTL
48%
77-82-6
47%
72-81-6
44%
70-90-6
50%
79-78-6
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