CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
13-13 | Road
6
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
4-21 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mickey Moniak
#22 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Mickey Moniak | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.70
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
84%
ROCKIES
16%
REDS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
19.0%
COL By 1-2 runs
12.5%
COL By 3-4 runs
6.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5.87
CINCINNATI
Colorado
3.51
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
CIN @ COL
9 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
CIN @ COL
3 - 10
Jul 17, 2026
CIN @ COL
7 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
COL @ CIN
4 - 6
Apr 29, 2026
COL @ CIN
13 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.699
OPS
▲
.739
213
▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+37.5% more
Cincinnati: 11.0
vs
Colorado: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+20.1% more
Cincinnati: 16.9
vs
Colorado: 13.5
Home Runs (Season)
+15.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.8% more
Cincinnati: 7.4
vs
Colorado: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.9
6
COL Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.9 / 11.0
8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 7.4
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 16.9
15.0 / 23.0
Walks
4.1 / 4.1
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
CIN
COL
CIN
ML
60%
97-64
55%
88-71
55%
88-73
49%
79-81
ATS
60%
97-64
54%
86-73
52%
83-78
50%
80-80
TTL
60%
93-62-6
53%
81-73-5
50%
77-78-6
54%
83-72-5
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