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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

12-14  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Apr 26 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

17-9  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Chandler Simpson
STARTING PITCHER

Chandler Simpson

#14 | Left Field
@
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chandler Simpson None-None -- -- -- --
Wandy Peralta None-None 0.77 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.77
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
31%
📊
PADRES
69%
RAYS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

39.9%

Padres Cover

60.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

TB By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
TAMPA BAY
4.82
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 SD @ TB 4 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 SD @ TB 6 - 7
Aug 28, 2026 SD @ TB 4 - 9
Apr 27, 2025 TB @ SD 4 - 2
Apr 26, 2025 TB @ SD 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.728
OPS
▲ .925
169 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +46.8% more
San Diego: 11.1 vs Tampa Bay: 7.6
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
San Diego: 0.6 vs Tampa Bay: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season) +32.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
OPS (Season) +19.7%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Tampa Bay: 72.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.8 4
SD Score 4.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.5 / 7.7 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.1 / 7.6 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 7.7 / 11.8 10.0 / 14.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.0 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
TB
SD
TB
ML
51% 85-83
58% 95-68
51% 85-82
58% 95-68
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 97-66
55% 92-75
55% 90-73
TTL
51% 82-80-6
47% 73-81-9
54% 86-74-6
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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