MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
12-13 | Road
0
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
14-12 | Home
14
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Sanoja
#8 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
J.P. Crawford
#3 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Sanoja | None-None | 10.13 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
| J.P. Crawford | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
10.13
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
44%
MARINERS
56%
MARLINS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.8%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.2%
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.0%
SEA By 3-4 runs
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.24
MIAMI
Seattle
5.01
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
SEA @ MIA
4 - 8
Jul 8, 2026
SEA @ MIA
0 - 2
Jul 7, 2026
SEA @ MIA
5 - 6
Apr 27, 2025
MIA @ SEA
6 - 7
Apr 26, 2025
MIA @ SEA
0 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.727
▲
OPS
.693
168
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+26.3% more
Miami: 3.2
vs
Seattle: 2.3
Total Bases (L5)
+9.6% more
Miami: 15.4
vs
Seattle: 13.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.0% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Seattle: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+3.4%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.2
0
SEA Score
5.0
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.3
15.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.5
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 15.4
30.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.2
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
MIA
SEA
MIA
ML
50%
81-81
48%
78-84
52%
85-77
55%
88-72
ATS
60%
98-64
56%
91-71
59%
95-67
54%
86-74
TTL
56%
85-67-10
56%
88-69-5
53%
81-71-10
53%
82-73-5
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