TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
13-13 | Road
1
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
15-11 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Myles Straw
#3 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Straw | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Max Fried | None-None | 1.19 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.19
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
42%
YANKEES
58%
BLUE JAYS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.7%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.24
TORONTO
New York
4.55
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.692
OPS
▲
1.041
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+125.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Total Bases (L5)
+44.3% more
New York: 14.1
vs
Toronto: 9.8
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
New York: 0.6
vs
Toronto: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+43.9% more
New York: 9.3
vs
Toronto: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.2
1
NYY Score
4.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.3 / 6.5
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.8 / 8.0
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 9.8
21.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.0
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47%
76-85
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
90-71
53%
86-76
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
51%
80-76-5
53%
82-72-7
45%
70-85-5
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