TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
13-14 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
17-10 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Walls
#6 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Walls | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 1.32 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.32
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
35%
PADRES
65%
RAYS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.3%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.1%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.09
TAMPA BAY
San Diego
4.52
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SD @ TB
4 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
SD @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 28, 2026
SD @ TB
4 - 9
Apr 27, 2025
TB @ SD
4 - 2
Apr 26, 2025
TB @ SD
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.728
OPS
▲
.925
169
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+92.0% more
San Diego: 1.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+52.3% more
San Diego: 10.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+19.7%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.1
4
SD Score
4.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.3 / 8.2
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 7.0
5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
8.4 / 12.5
5.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.0
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
TB
SD
TB
ML
51%
85-83
58%
95-68
51%
85-82
58%
95-68
ATS
54%
91-77
60%
97-66
55%
92-75
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
82-80-6
47%
73-81-9
54%
86-74-6
51%
78-75-10
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