ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
12-14 | Road
4
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
14-13 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drake Baldwin
#30 | Catcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 4.63 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.63
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
44%
DIAMONDBACKS
56%
BRAVES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.4%
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.46
ATLANTA
Arizona
4.42
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
ARI @ ATL
3 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
ARI @ ATL
10 - 3
Aug 14, 2026
ARI @ ATL
2 - 0
Apr 5, 2026
ATL @ ARI
5 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
ATL @ ARI
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Arizona
ARI
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.757
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+24.5% more
Atlanta: 9.5
vs
Arizona: 7.2
Total Bases (L5)
+10.2% more
Atlanta: 16.4
vs
Arizona: 14.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+3.7%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.5
4
ARI Score
4.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.3
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 9.5
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 7.6
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 16.4
20.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.3 / 4.7
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
ATL
ARI
ATL
ML
54%
87-74
46%
77-90
54%
86-74
54%
90-78
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
96-71
56%
89-71
52%
87-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
83-73-11
49%
73-77-9
49%
76-80-11
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