PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
11-17 | Road
2
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
17-10 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Reynolds
#10 | Left Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Vesia
#51 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Alex Vesia | None-None | 3.29 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.29
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
28%
DODGERS
72%
PIRATES
--
DODGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.7%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
16.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.44
PITTSBURGH
Los Angeles
4.4
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers
Win
72% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Pirates (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
PIT @ LAD
0 - 4
Aug 22, 2026
PIT @ LAD
3 - 4
Aug 21, 2026
PIT @ LAD
4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026
LAD @ PIT
8 - 6
Jun 10, 2026
LAD @ PIT
8 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
4.94
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.734
OPS
▲
.762
186
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+73.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+52.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+31.6% more
Los Angeles: 16.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.8
Home Runs (Season)
+9.7% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.4
2
LAD Score
4.4
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.7
14.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.3
12.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
16.8 / 12.8
21.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.4 / 2.5
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
PIT
LAD
PIT
ML
56%
92-73
52%
82-77
48%
79-87
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
98-67
54%
86-73
43%
72-94
50%
81-82
TTL
48%
77-82-6
47%
72-81-6
44%
70-90-6
50%
79-78-6
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