Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Orioles NYY @ BAL

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

17-11  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Apr 28 • 6:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

10-17  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Yarbrough
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Yarbrough

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yennier Cano
STARTING PITCHER

Yennier Cano

#78 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Yarbrough None-None 4.11 -- 3.2 3
Yennier Cano None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.11 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
3.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
72%
📊
ORIOLES
28%
YANKEES --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

67.2%

Orioles Cover

32.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.0%

BAL By 1-2 runs

14.2%

BAL By 3-4 runs

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.74
NEW YORK
2.96
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
72% Win Prob
B
Sim Orioles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Orioles (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 BAL @ NYY 3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026 NYY @ BAL 6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 NYY @ BAL 5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 NYY @ BAL 3 - 1
May 13, 2026 NYY @ BAL 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Baltimore BAL
1
Games Played
▲ 161
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041 ▲
OPS
.711
2
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +50.4% more
New York: 9.0 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Total Bases (L5) +41.4% more
New York: 16.4 vs Baltimore: 9.6
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
New York: 0.7 vs Baltimore: 0.3
Hits (L5) +34.1% more
New York: 10.2 vs Baltimore: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.7 3
BAL Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 10.2 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 5.5 15.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 9.6 / 16.4 14.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.2 / 2.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NYY
BAL
NYY
ML
53% 83-73
47% 76-85
57% 90-69
52% 85-77
ATS
61% 95-60-1
59% 95-66
57% 90-68-1
53% 86-76
TTL
54% 81-70-5
53% 81-73-7
51% 78-75-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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