ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
12-16 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
15-13 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.51 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.51
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
39%
REDS
61%
CARDINALS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
STL By 1-2 runs
13.1%
STL By 3-4 runs
7.4%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.79
ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati
5.94
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.691
OPS
▲
.699
167
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+85.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.2
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+51.9% more
Cincinnati: 18.3
vs
St. Louis: 12.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+48.2% more
Cincinnati: 9.2
vs
St. Louis: 6.2
Hits (L5)
+43.7% more
Cincinnati: 12.4
vs
St. Louis: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.8
1
CIN Score
5.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.4 / 8.7
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 6.2
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
18.3 / 12.0
16.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.8
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55%
88-71
53%
85-74
49%
79-81
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
80-80
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
81-73-5
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-72-5
50%
76-75-10
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